Democrat delegate math…

It has been said by more than a few political pundits that if the Democrats designed their primary delegate mess how can any American voter really want them to design national health care…  I tend to agree.

Why weren’t Democrat races “winner takes all“?  Why have “super delegates” when their primary purpose is just to ensure that the actual voters don’t make a stupid mistake by nominating the person of their choice?  Why didn’t the Democratic National Committee foresee the problems they would create by “punishing” Michigan and Florida?  If the DNC knew they weren’t going to seat the Michigan and Florida delegates, why did they even hold primaries in those states?  I’m sure there was some legal reason, but that just takes us back to the question of why they didn’t see the delegate problems coming from a mile away.  Why is Howard Dean, the head of the DNC, talking out of both sides of his mouth about wanting to re-vote and not wanting to re-vote?  The whole thing is a mess.  And it could lead to an even bigger mess at the convention in Denver.  If Hillary Clinton isn’t running to be vice-president, why is she still in the race?  She has to know that if she wins by any other means than Barack Obamaself-imploding, she is going to face an angry voting base for the general election.  Is Barack Obama stupid enough to accept a vice-president slot on a ticket with Hillary Clinton knowing that if they lose (and it could happen) that he would be tainted by association for 2012?  And even if they win, he won’t be a strong vice-president in a Hillary Clinton administration.

From the best information I could find, here is the current state of Democrat Delegate Math:

Without the Florida & Michigan delegates, 2,025 delegates are needed to win the nomination.  If Florida and Michigan get seated, then 2,200 delegates are needed to win the nomination.

Barack Obama currently has 1395 pledged delegates and the promise of 211 super delegates = 1606 total.

Hillary Clinton currently has 1237 pledged delegates and the promise of 247 super delegates = 1484 total.

There are currently 338 super delegates who are unpromised.

The remaining contests:

4/22 Pennsylvania has 158 delegates, 5/3 Guam has 4 delegates, 5/6 North Carolina has 115 delegates, 5/6 Indiana has 72 delegates, 5/13 West Virginia has 28 delegates, 5/20 Oregon has 52 delegates, 5/20 Kentucky has 51 delegates, 6/1 Puerto Rico has 55 delegates, 6/3 Montana has 16 delegates and 6/3 South Dakota has 15 delegates which means there are only 566 pledged delegates left to win.

If the DNC allows Michigan to seat their delegates, that would be 128 more pledged delegates.  And Florida would add another 210pledged delegates to the mix.  The problem is, Barack Obama wasn’t even on the ballot in Michigan, so it would be totally unfair to seat the delegates based on the original primary vote.

It would also be totally unfair if the general tax payers in either Florida or Michigan had to pay for a possible re-vote.  I don’t even think it is fair if the state Democrat parties had to pay for the re-vote.  The DNC created this mess and they should pay for it in so many ways.

It has also been said by more than a few political pundits that the 2008 election is one that the Democrats can’t possibly lose.  I used to agree with that statement.  Now I am not so sure.  If the Democrats beat the crap out of each other until June and then the DNC or the super delegates “fix” the election for one candidate over the other, I don’t see how the Democrats can win in November.

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One Response

  1. I can’t believe that people would want to be associated with a party that basically put a mechanism in place for the party to over rule the voters. I believe that there was a quote a few weeks ago from a PA super delegate that his is supposed to do what is best for America, not just what the voters think.

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